Experts Urge Investors to Stay in the Market in SA

Keep Investing Say Experts

An article published on the Personal Finance website draws attention to concerns over the current downturn in the South African market and urges investors not to bail out just yet. You will lose the substantial gains of the past five years and this may seriously hamper your ability to retire financially secure.

The article likens the hammering being experienced by the property and equity markets in the current economic conditions to a war zone, suggesting that investors will most probably have to “keep their heads below the parapet for some time”. However, the equity and property experts are of the opinion that survival is possible if investors don’t panic and aren’t strangled by debt.

Prices of property and equity have been falling fast this year; with Standard Bank’s house price data reflecting a 9% drop in median house prices in the year to April. Equity markets, both local and foreign, have been in the spotlight since May, with the FTSE/JSE All Share Index (Alsi) down to 27 995 at the close of trade on Thursday, after having capped 33 000 in May.

Of course, the weakening of property and equity values this year has been impacted by the rising inflation rate. In factual terms, any nominal returns are reduced and any losses are increased by the loss of real value due to an inflation rate of 10.9% for the year to May.

Considering the previous five years of growth up until now though, most people don’t have to panic, as they have rarely seen it so good. As Paul Hansen of Stanlib puts it, investors in his company’s Small Cap Fund may have received a “huge klap” by the fund’s 40% drop from a record high last year, but the fund “is still triple the value it was in 2003”.

According to Rian le Roux, chief economist at Old Mutual, over the past five years investments in almost all sectors in South Africa have fared exceptionally well. The average annual return for unit trust funds in the domestic general equity sub-category has realized over 30% each year, while the ABSA house price index increased by 18% each year. Over the same period, inflation was stable at an annual average of 6%.

Essentially, this translates into a sharp growth in the wealth of most South Africans who invested in residential property and equity over the past five years, mainly through retirement funds, insurance policies and unit trusts. However, le Roux asserts that such high returns could not be sustained and the current slowdown was to be expected.

“Investors who invested in the past year or two are hurting, especially those who invested in financial and industrial shares,” says le Roux. He warns that during “bear markets”, investors “need to guard against any inclination to panic as they see their wealth falling”.

Instead of panicking prematurely, investors should rather remind themselves of the volatility of markets and that historically, those who have chosen to ride out the storm have been rewarded in the long term. Most asset managers are following their own advice and hanging in, even if their short term performance is negative, as they believe that the current volatility will reflect better pricing in the medium term.

Johan de Lange, director of South Africa’s top performing asset manager Allan Gray Investor Services, says that his company focuses on finding shares that offer basic value, with an investment horizon of at least four years. He adds that individuals should be considering long term investment objectives and “guard against acting irrationally”.

Trevor Pascoe, head of investment services at Old Mutual, says that many investors are tempted to move their money from equities to cash, even when their budgets are not really under pressure, simply because they are afraid the markets will continue to fall.

“Even investment professionals struggle to get market timing right on a regular basis. Investors who panic and disinvest from the market during downswings and reinvest during upswings usually destroy value. Smart investors realize the importance of continuing to invest through a dip, making the bear market work for them by picking up equities cheaply,” says Pascoe.

Le Roux insists that those facing difficulties in the current economic climate are people are entrenched too deeply in debt. He goes on to say that Old Mutual estimates that household debt interest repayments increased from 6% of household after-tax income at the end of 2003 to 11.5% currently.

His advice seems to be not to give into temptation and dip into your long term savings to see you through the rough times, as this may be beneficial in the short term, but in the long term it may leave you with insufficient funds for retirement. “If budgets are under pressure, you should rather try to reduce your monthly spending”.

According to Jeremy Gardiner, of Investec Asset Management, the two primary risk factors investors now face are being overweight in either commodities or cash. “While the long run commodity story is fundamentally sound, a significant correction within the next two years is quite possible. Commodities are an important part of any investment portfolio, but your exposure should be appropriate to your risk profile. Similarly, be careful of being overweight in cash for too long. The risk of being out of the market when it turns up is as high as the risk of being in when the markets turn down,” says Gardiner.

The information in this article is courtesy of Bruce Cameron (“Now is the wrong time to stop investing”, Personal Finance, 19 July 2008).

Visit www.sahometraders.co.za if you would like to buy or sell property in South Africa.