Have We Reached the Bottom of the Cycle?

(Accessed from www.realestateweb.co.za on October 7, 2008.)

Real estate veteran Bill Rawson says that while house prices are down, national sales are up dramatically, which suggests that we have reached the bottom of the cycle. Perhaps the most common mistake made by sellers in the current market is to insist on an asking price that is no longer acceptable.

While property prices in the Cape continue to perform better than most other provinces in South Africa, they are still 20% off their peak in 2007. Often when sellers find that the offers they have been receiving reflect this then they enter a state of denial, blame the agent, the advertising or any other factor and refuse to drop below the original asking price.

This tends to leave the property on the market for six to twelve months, after which it is probably below market value due to a certain stigma that it may have picked up. Buyers are generally suspicious of homes that have been on the market for so long, assuming that there is some hidden fault that prevents them from selling.

The right time to drop your asking price is the moment you realize that the price is not going to be accepted. Once you do this, it is highly likely that some of the original potential buyers will regain interest in the property. While it can be emotionally upsetting for a seller to reduce the price on a home when he or she has spent time and money lavishing it with care, buyers are in the best position that they have been for nine years, so it is really no use trying to buck the trend – it almost never works.

The total number of homes on the market has fallen by 20% and the time taken to sell a property is now between twelve and fifteen weeks, which is nearly twice as long as in 2007. Rawson also doesn’t see the situation changing any time soon, although the Reserve Bank’s decision not to raise interest rates seems to have stabilized the market somewhat and probably signals the end of the downturn.

The veteran goes on to say that now is a great time to buy, despite the difficulties in obtaining bond finance. Property is still a top line investment and this has never been truer than in today’s tight market conditions. Consumers have grown overly cautious and negative in the current market climate and its time to dispel these reactions.

Rawson Properties, which has just over 140 franchises across the country, has recovered from a low in May/June to record a 250% increase in sales in September. However, Bill Rawson concedes that this trend is by no means universal and that his company is possibly unique in this aspect. Many smaller agencies are still going under and agents are dwindling, with the national figure down to 55 000 from 85 000.

With the latest political developments, interest may well be likely to decline, but there are questions being raised about the direction the new political leadership will take and exactly how ‘fairness to all’ will play out in terms of the dispensation. So far, it seems to have been handled quite well.

An encouraging sign is that South Africans seem to be more accepting of the new price structures in the property market, which often involves scaling down. Rawson has seen an increase in large deposits recently (up to 30% of the sale price), which also reflects that buyers are scaling down.

Rawson adds that, “Ongoing branding and marketing, with an increased emphasis on sophisticated customer related IT systems, ongoing support for franchisees with training, advice and encouragement and upgrading all of the support systems (again, particularly those that are IT related) are the factors that are taking the Rawson group forward”.

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